For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. So, where are the bellwether counties? | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. "They followed through the whole four years. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. This county voted with the popular vote each time. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. Go on, look them up! Not anymore. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. Want to dive deeper? In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. Their hopes are real. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. 3. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. Lets find a coin, and flip it. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump Sumter County, . Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. Will That Last?]. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. That's 14 in a row. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. First, what are bellwether counties? The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. In communities . Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. 2016 Election (1135) running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. It gets a lot more interesting. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. Trump gave them hope. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. 9. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). It requires a lot more than pure luck.). But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Do you know this baby? Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Their emotions and decision making process are real. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. We believe this was a mistake. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . . Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state.