U.S. allies and partners in the region are drawing lessons from Chinese coercive behavior and the limited U.S. response to it, and some are beginning to doubt U.S. resolve and adjust their foreign policies in response. U.S. access to the South China Sea is coming under increasing threat as Chinese power increases, but can be preserved if the United States maintains a sufficient military advantage over China. Journals and books. The purpose of this thesis is to examine the South China Sea dispute and to analyze why the dispute has yet to escalate, as well as the strategic importance of the South China Sea dispute to international trade. The USSJohn C. Stennistied up there for a few days in April. Australia and Vietnam established a Comprehensive Partnership in 2009 and agreed to expand it in 2015. The second will analyze the strategic landscape in and around the South China Sea. WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump and his Vietnamese counterpart Nguyen Xuan Phuc said the disputed South China Sea has a strategic significance for the international community and any "unlawful" restriction on the freedom of the seas will destabilise peace in the Asia-Pacific region. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Such pressure should focus on concrete, near-term objectives, such as putting a stop to reeducation of regime critics. Moving forward, freedom of navigation and routine presence operations should be executed on a regular basis to demonstrate U.S. resolve to fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows. The area marked with a blue line is based on the UNCLOS 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) relating to each countrys claims and the islands marked in green are the ones over which sovereignty is disputed. To counter Chinas efforts to control the South China Sea, the United States needs a sustainable strategy to bolster its own capabilities, work more effectively with capable allies and partners, and strengthen the regional order. This segment will address American interests. China, Russia and the Munich Security Conference. 2009 China issues two diplomatic notes that appear to claim a majority of the South China Sea. Southeast Asia will inevitably be rendered subordinate and compliant to Chinas will. There were, however, cautionary signs for those prepared to see them. In short, adopting a more robust deterrence approach need not prevent cooperation that is in the interests of both countries. China remains uncompromising on sovereignty, has increased its capability to enforce its de facto control in disputed areas, and has sought to advance its claims while staying below the threshold for direct military conflict with the United States. The United States needs to consider a wider variety of non-military responses to Chinas efforts to control the South China Sea, and more effectively build a local coalition to support these responses. This is the first of three short essays examining the South China Sea as a first order strategic problem for the United States. In each of these arenas, a successful Chinese effort to seize control of the South China Sea will have a profound impact and each is worth elaboration. As maritime security such as safety and freedom of . Few in Washington were inclined to see the South China Sea as a strategic priority engaging vital U.S. national interests. The growing size and capability of the Chinese air force, navy, and coast guard allow Beijing to consistently monitor and exercise de facto control over most of the South China Sea. Diplomatic, informational, legal, and economic responses are currently underrepresented in U.S. China policy, and their incorporation into the policy toolkit will be important for successfully dissuading China over the long-term. Although ultimately unsuccessful in Vietnam, America emerged in a surprisingly advantageous strategic position in Southeast Asia with alliances intact with Thailand and the Philippines and friendly ties with Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. February 27, 2023. Coral reefs, which are vital to marine habitats, have been declining by 16 percent per decade, according to a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The Asia Program promotes policy debate and intellectual discussions on U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific as well as political, economic, security, and social issues relating to the worlds most populous and economically dynamic region. Generally, oil and minerals move north, and food and manufactured goods move south. Preserving the U.S. military edge is key to maintaining the U.S. position in Asia. Since the mid-1990s, China has pursued a strategy . The largest and most powerful of these . In December, another joint China-Russia naval exercise was held in the East China Sea (China Military Online, December 21, 2022). It is growing more difficult to discuss Southeast Asia without discussing Japan, India and Australia, whose ties to the region and to each other are maturing and whose militarieswhether represented by personnel, aircraft, or warshipsare increasingly present in the region. This article examines Chinas behaviour in the South China Sea disputes through the lens of its strategy for managing its claims. By the end of the 1970s, communist insurgencies outside Indochina had been effectively suppressed. Navy P-8s are now regularly deploying to Singapore and, although without regular access, they have conducted patrols from Malaysia as well. Thats why the United States has urged countries to resolve maritime claim disputes peacefully and in accordance with international law. In a context of great power competition, the South China Sea (SCS) has emerged as an arena of U.S.-China strategic competition. The conflict and tension over competing sovereignty claims in the South China Sea has grown considerably in the past 5-10 years. And thus a new strategic map of Asia begins to emerge. The Chinese recently built an island in the South China Sea, apparently as a potential airbase. TheSouth China Seais one of the most important economic and environmental regions in the world. In . But if China continues to play its cards wrong and if the United States proves itself a dependable partner, American warships could one day regularly operate out of Cam Ranh Bay, the strategically located port-of-call, for the first time since the Vietnam War. LinkedIn and 3rd parties use essential and non-essential cookies to provide, secure, analyze and improve our Services, and to show you relevant ads (including professional and job ads) on and off LinkedIn. In recent years, Chinas inventive engineering feats have allowed it to create more than 3,200 acres of new land in the South China Sea. The U.S. militarys enhanced ability to loiter in and over the South China Sea, moreover, will facilitate more effective efforts to track Chinese submarines sailing from the PLANs underground naval base on Hainan island. The United States has leverage over China in areas not directly related to South China Sea and may have to consider using or threatening to use these tools to stabilize the regional order. Beijings moves have prompted Washington to counter Chinese assertiveness by forging a new strategic alignment in the regionone in which China dominates the South China Sea from the north, the United States and its partners do so from the east and west, and the states of continental Southeast Asia remain neutral or lean toward Beijing in the intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition. The United States has been largely successful at preserving its own freedom of action and deterring outright Chinese aggression in the South China Sea through routine presence operations. Hanoi will move cautiously and such access may be limited to the purposes of logistical support for the time being. Stay Connected! This principled stand allows the United States to defend its interests without embroiling itself in the murky sovereignty claims at the heart of the South China Sea dispute. Accordingly, Malaysia's note verbale serves as the strongest stance of Malaysia on the SCS in recent times and aligns itself with the top priority of its DWP. Most of China's global trade is seaborne. Despite all that, Beijing now faces a competition with Washington (and Delhi and Tokyo) for influence in Naypyidaw. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), it carries one-third of global shipping, carrying trillions of dollars in trade, making it a significant geopolitical water body. US still mired in a 'Cold War' mindset, but the tide's turning, The West is misreading Chinas Party Congress at the peril of world stability, Can Foreign Investors still have Good Reasons to be Optimistic about China? If China can exert complete control over the region, using predominantly the maritime domain, it can build a significant strategic sphere of influence and power. China has become increasingly assertive in the region, and regional powers from Japan to Singapore have become alarmed at China's behavior. The South China Sea is a strategic body of water bordering Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam and China. through South China Sea Port is 1400 kms long. Nevertheless, for America, this new world will be profoundly discomfiting and even alien. The "Implementing the Strategic Action Programme for the South China Sea and Gulf of Thailand" (SCS SAP Project) completed its Inception Phase with the 1st Steering Committee Meeting held online on the 29 and 30 of June, 2021 with official representatives from Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam and the UNEP Task Manager for the project, with the support of . Then again, China may see its efforts in the South China Sea blunted. Over the longer term, American defense contractors may have their sights set on sales of fighter aircraft and attack helicopters. The United States has an interest in seeing that these partners maintain their strategic autonomy, but capacity building efforts to help them resist coercion are not keeping pace with Chinas growing capabilities. Unfortunately, the allies now lack a shared strategic outlook, thus reducing the impetus to overcome recent bilateral political hurdles. The U.S.-Thai relationship has suffered since the 2006 coup that overthrew Thaksin Shinawatra and especially since the latest coup, which saw the military take control in 2014 and stubbornly cling to power. "First, South China Sea is important for the strategic patrol of Chinese SSBN [nuclear ballistic missile submarine], which needs to enter west Pacific Ocean for its nuclear deterrence against the US," he explained. Tackling these issues will be tricky for the United States, as many of the elites that benefit from corruption will be those with whom Washington must work to deepen ties, but this is a long-term effort worth pursuing. This concept of regional order links tightly to a broader set of interests, values, and institutions embodied in the post-World War II international system a system that reflects U.S. values, U.S. leadership and is consonant with U.S. interests. Successful capacity building efforts will allow Southeast Asian states to better help themselves, bolstering deterrence against low-level Chinese coercion and allowing the U.S. military to focus more on deterring high-level contingencies. In addition, this thesis intends to propose a solution to the dispute by pulling from a variety of sources. Beijing may not find it quite as easy to run roughshod over Hanoi in the coming years. The strategic landscape of the Western Pacific and Southeast Asia in the early 1990s was remarkably benign with optimism in full flower. The South China Sea is a core interest of both Vietnam and China. China's strategic reach into the South China Sea has obvious and profound implications for three sets of international actors: (1) the littoral Southeast Asian states (Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, and the Philippines); (2) major maritime countries heavily dependent on the sea lanes through the South China Sea (including Japan, Korea, and The United States emerged from World War II as a resident great power in East Asia. 1. At the economic front, it is estimated that an annual global trade of $5.3 trillion passes through the SCS. If full democratization is her goal, there is no foreign partner more important than Washington for achieving it. South China Sea is a strategic sea lane is significance for connectivity, navigation, trade and resources is a global hotspot as a potential flashpoint. It is the geostrategic importance that is usually the main reason for the parties to strengthen their claim over the Spratlys and the Paracels. It would also open the option of persistently jamming Chinese radar installations in the Spratlys. director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative at Peking . In particular, shifting explanations for how the United States will manage Chinas rising power and influencealong with the military-heavy implementation of the rebalancehave exacerbated suspicions that Washington seeks to contain Beijings rise. Brunei's statement seems to present a unified front with the Philippines and Vietnam, in preparation for its ASEAN chairmanship in 2021, where ASEAN and China hope to finalise the formulation of the code of conduct to reduce tensions in the South China Sea. It is one in which China dominates the South China Sea from the north; the United States and its partners dominate the eastern and western edges of the sea; and the bulk of continental Southeast Asian states (Thailand, Cambodia and Laos) are either neutral or aligned more closely with China. More than half of the worlds fishing vessels are in the South China Sea, and millions of people depend on these waters for their food and livelihoods. The Strategic Importance of the South China Sea (With reference to the geopolitical, economic, and military aspects) South China Sea is known as one of the most significant and dangerous cluster of Islands in the contemporary world. Guidelines for a South China Sea Strategy. The two major power of the world i.e. In a meeting attended by the foreign ministers of 26 nations from the broader region, Clinton simply asserted that the South China Sea was subject to multiple territorial claims and a multinational mechanism should be established to find a peaceful diplomatic solution. Pressing Challenges to U.S. Army Acquisition: A Conversation with Hon. What is more important from a strategic viewpoint, however, is that global energy projections that the EIA issues in the International Energy Outlook, issued in October 2021, make it clear that China and Asia will have a sharply growing dependence on MENA and Gulf petroleum exports that may well extend through 2050. Follow the Asia Program on Twitter @AsiaProgram. In May, Australia and Singapore agreed to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. In the defense realm, the CSP paves the way for more bilateral military exercises, greater Singaporean access to Australian training facilities, enhanced intelligence-sharing arrangements and expanded people-to-people exchanges. The Thai people are lurching towards a new political arrangement, a process that Thais have to see through for themselves. Seventh Fleet transits regularly between the Pacific and Indian Oceans (including the Bay of Bengal). To facilitate capacity building, Washington should preserve regional defense relationships while recognizing that the ability of the United States to partner with frontline states depends on their cooperation and adherence to good governance and human rights. The strategic signal of an Indian presence in the South China Sea Harsh V. Pant India has wider stakes in South China Sea as nearly 55% of India's trade with the Indo-Pacific region passes through these waters. The reaction of the Chinese Foreign Minister was incendiary and revealing. If China succeeds, in displacing U.S. power in the Western Pacific and Chinese territorial expansion into the South China Sea becomes permanent and codified, global geopolitics will have entered a new and very different era. As sovereignty over the SCS involves Chinas economic, energy and national security interests it is highly likely that the increased projection of maritime power will continue. The Art of War helps expose the motivation behind past, current, and future Chinese actions. In 2016, they carried fully one-third of global shipping with an estimated value of $3.4 trillion. The strategic importance of the South China Sea cannot be overstated. All countries want positive economic and security ties with both China and the United States. However, there were a number of reasons to conclude that the line was no cartographic anomaly; it was an official indication of Beijings contention that the sovereign territory of China included the South China Sea. The South China Sea is one of the most important trade pathways in the world. and Amy Searight. Importantly, the Air Forces presence on Luzon, perhaps to be followed by regular naval rotations in Subic Bay, will put the United States in a better position to quickly seal up the Luzon Strait, which links the South China Sea to the Philippine Sea and the wider Pacific Ocean. In April, Australian Defence Force personnel joined the U.S.-Philippines Balikatan maneuvers, which included an amphibious landing exercise. The area is globally important for a few reasons. Speaking to Anadolu Agency on Thursday, Bonji Ohara, a senior fellow at the Tokyo-based Sasakawa Peace Foundation, said the marginal sea is key to China's security. In 2010, the US declared its freedom of navigation in the SCS to be a national interest in response to Chinas increasingly assertive posture. Because of its location, this sea is extremely strategic because it connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans (Strait of Malacca). "American aircraft, this is the PLA air force. Recent satellite analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies shows that Chinese fishing fleets are engaged in paramilitary work on behalf of the state rather than the commercial enterprise of fishing, the organization reported. The increasing activity of Beijing in the South China Sea, Consequences of US-China rivalry in Indo-Pacific and beyond, Balancing the giants: Australia between China and US. China, however, must now balance its continental concerns, which remain complex, against its new dependence on the maritime domain. That included nearly 40 percent of Chinas total trade and 90 percent of petroleum imports by China, Japan, and South Korea and nearly 6 percent of total U.S. trade. Persistent American military presence at the eastern, southern and western points of the compassespecially when combined with regional states advancing ISR capabilities, for which the United States is providing investmentwould enable the United States to respond rapidly to incidents in disputed island chains or to Chinese attacks on U.S. and allied naval and air assets or on commercial shipping. The United States and the West more broadly can live with such an outcome. In this article, let us look at the strategic importance of the South China Sea, History of the South China Sea Dispute, countries involved, causes, impacts, India's stand on the dispute and the way forward for the UPSC IAS Examination. South China Sea and possible options. As building of military facilities continued in 2015, the US explicitly announced its opposition to these constructions and tasked surveillance assets to conduct over flights in the SCS and significantly raised tensions. This button displays the currently selected search type. Figure 4 shows the overlapping sovereignty claims in the SCS, with Chinas claims according to the 9 dash line doctrine in red. The strategic value of the alliance remains high, according to theCongressional Research Service: *** U.S. The strategic importance of the SCS is mainly due to its geographical location, as the area is one of the world's busiest and most strategic shipping lanes. This puts more pressure on Washington to intervene and U.S. allies and partners in Asia are watching carefully and drawing conclusions about U.S. commitment and staying power in the region. Historically, Taiwan's pivotal location off the China coast and between Northeast and Southeast Asia has served a variety of strategic purposes for regional powers, both offensive and defensive. In my mind, this leads to 3 key questions to base any form of analysis from: In order to understand the contention of the South China Sea and its significance, it is firstly imperative to understand the geopolitical importance of Asia, which has given rise to Chinese pre-eminence; enabling its rise to contemporary major political power on the global stage. If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it. 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Beijing has also been careful to avoid estranging Aung San Suu Kyi and adopted a largely pragmatic approach to the countrys transition away from authoritarian rule. What is the Strategic Importance of the South China Sea? Even then, the countrys division between royalists and red-shirts will likely endure. In addition, tensions have been raised with the Philippines after assertive Chinese naval patrols which they described as aggressive action. It remains entirely plausible that any Chinese strategy could have a long term goal of possessing the power to deny US or western warships access to the SCS, with China largely laying claim to most of the area as it's own waters. It has increased its military budget by over 8.5% in recent years and this is likely to continue for the near future. All these aspects highlight the strategic indispensability of the South China Sea for global trade routes. Conservation values protection of marine habitat against wanton, unnecessary despoliation are also essential. In particular, Chinas growing assertiveness over sovereignty and maritime rights in the South China Sea could be assessed as a serious challenge to the status quo in the region. That redundancy will grant the United States flexibility in a couple of ways. The strategically important South China Sea is an increasingly prominent stage for the spiraling tensions . Final Thoughts & Looking Towards the Future. Shortly after the ARF concluded, an official spokesman for the Chinese Defense Ministry asserted Chinas indisputable sovereignty over the South China Sea. Geopolitical platform, analysis of political, military, security, economic, social events with international and geopolitics relevance. China has tried to effectively annex the whole South China Sea region as its territorial waters, according to Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). The geopolitical message was unmistakable: Western expectations that China was transitioning toward political democracy were entirely illusory. The new administration should issue clear and consistent strategic messages, since inconsistent articulation of the objectives of the rebalance strategy has caused confusion in China and amongst U.S. allies and partners. in the northeast, the South China Sea is one of the most important trade routes in the world. The main route to and from Pacific and Indian ocean ports is through the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea. Narendra Modis Act East policy has resulted in an acceleration of burgeoning India-ASEAN ties and Indias position on the South China Sea territorial disputes essentially mirrors that of the United States. To this end, the new administration should perform an early, top-down, and thorough strategic review to enable greater consistency and effectiveness in U.S. South China Sea policy. The most likely single scenario for a major military engagement against a great power adversary would be one against China centered on the South China Sea. U.S. leaders should not be afraid of tension in the U.S.-China relationship. Importantly, the countries of maritime Southeast Asia are not aligning only with the United States, but with a grouping of external states concerned with the nature of Chinas rise.