San Francisco 49ers +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total), Tricky to put San Francisco here given the uncertainty at QB, but theres no way they actually start 21-year-old Trey Lance, right?. From Devin Hester to an elite defense led by Brian Urlacher, this team earned their spot on the biggest stage. Unsung, their defense only allowed 17.1 points per game. If Lance does beat out Garoppolo, that would be a sign he is comparable to the veteran, and thus a downgrade might not make sense. that each ranks in the top 10. They played in plenty of close games, and Steve McNair and Eddie George were superb. Because there is a salary cap. When teams win the players want raises forcing teams to lose some players. This is what is happening to Green Bay an That's ridiculous. Sixth-round draft pickTom Brady took over for the injured Drew Bledsoe at quarterback and led the Patriots all the way to the Super Bowl title. Unfortunately for them, that stopped in the playoffs and in the Super Bowl. Jalen Hurts will not pull a Kurt Warner this year and lead the Eagles to the Super Bowl.. Im more likely to become a billionaire than the Texans are to finish above .500, much less win the Super Bowl this season. He's a key piece in guiding Tennessee to its first championship. 1: 3: 17: 313: 305: 40.0: Denver came in with a historically good offense. 20 David Tyree: 2008 Giants Known for his improbable catch in the Super Bowl and how it essentially won the Giants the game, it also hasn't been lost that Tyree was just a mediocre player at best, at any point during his career. Self care and ideas to help you live a healthier, happier life. Even without Wentz, the forecast for that stretch is better than one might guess; on average, the Colts win 2.2 of those games, and the chances that they start 0-5 is just over 1 in 20. Kansas City's middling defense (No. ELEVEN! FPI thinks they take another step forward this season. Ken Anderson led his team to 124. Cole Beasley is also a reliable target for Allen, who does as much damage from the outside as well as the slot. A 14-win team with a top 10 offense and defense. Had Rodgers simply decided to retire rather than suit up, Green Bay's chances to make the playoffs would have dropped from 70% to 24%, and their Super Bowl chances would have dropped from 6% to 0.2%. And we'll start with the Chiefs: More: Chark will help Lawrence out immensely, especially with James Robinson, Carlos Hyde, and Travis Etienne capable of creating a balanced rushing attack. With that criteria in mind, weve ranked every Super Bowl ever played from worst to first. Here are the 10 teams most likely to win Super Bowl LV: Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay is still not that likely, however. Las Vegas Raiders +6600 (bet $10 to win $670 total), One of the most dysfunctional teams in the league, the Raiders once again scream "stay away. Arizona has the potential to shock the NFL and win 11-plus games, emerging victorious in a strong NFC West. Matt Rhule is a coach whose stock Im buying low.. Even if Kevin Dyson had pulled a Michael Jordan in Space Jam and reached the ball over the goal line, the game would have gone to overtime. At 10-4-1, this Broncos team was better balanced than the '86 team. Stefon Diggs is one of the game's best wide receivers and Gabriel Davis is one of the underrated young wideouts in the league. So, which teams have won it all, but look inferior to their championship brethren in retrospect? ", Remember, this is about *value* in Super Bowl odds. Let's dive into the 2021 FPI projections with the 10 biggest takeaways. The 1991 Redskins might be the greatest team in NFL history, which bumps this game up a few spots. 2023 NFL Draft odds: Will Georgia's Stetson Bennett get selected? Yes, they have the best QB, a fleet of skill players and a fantastic coach, but history is not on their side. Dick Vermeil's boys just missed out on the Lombardi Trophy with one bad day. By contrast, FPI is bullish on Cleveland's offense -- which ranks third in the league behind the Chiefs and Packers but ahead of the Bills -- but gives the Browns the 18th-best defense. The aforementioned Dilfer-led passing game ranked only 23rd in the regular season (in fairness to Dilfer, he did replace Tony Banks midway through the year), and the only time the chains seemed to move was when rookie Jamal Lewis barreled forward for three or four yards. It all makes for a nice story, but the fact remains that the Giants were not a superb team. A full explanation for how FPI works can be found here, but here's the abridged version: The model determines forward-looking strength ratings for every team based on a variety of factors, including team win total, projected starting quarterback, returning starters and past performance on offense, defense and special teams. Seattle came in with the leagues best defense. 2007 Giants, 2007 Patriots, 2006 Colts, or the 2009 Saints, with a 25th overall defense, could say they were all the worst defensive teams to win a Brady and Belichick established the Patriots as a dynasty with their third Lombardi in four years. This is the first game on this list that was actually competitive going into the fourth quarter, but it was a sloppy affair featuring seven fumbles and a pair of interceptions. A.J. The NFC West is loaded, but the Cardinals have the talent to win the division. It has been updated to include Super Bowl LII. Division favorites, win totals and the NFL's best (and worst) teams: Takeaways from the 2021 projections, The future of the NFL combine: Is there really a chance it could end forever? Denver has eight games against FPI's bottom 10 teams: at Giants, at Jaguars, vs. They lost the Super Bowl 1055 against the San Francisco 49ers. A smart strategy? CBS Sports is a registered trademark of CBS Broadcasting Inc. Commissioner.com is a registered trademark of CBS Interactive Inc. site: media | arena: nfl | pageType: stories | It was not only totally unexpected but it was made possible by a play-call that will be debated for years to come. The NFC West features three of FPI's top 10 teams in the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks, and the 21st-ranked Cardinals aren't necessarily an easy out, either. Cleveland has the game's top running back tandem in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, a duo head coach Kevin Stefanski utilizes heavily in the offense. And they should open 2-0, meaning their odds will get even shorter., Too much turnover on the offensive line for my liking, though, as 37-year old Aaron Rodgers will open the season with three new starters., 7. Id have to guess the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. 12:11 pm ET, NFL combine 2023 tracker: Top performances, highlights, Jones assures Cowboys still interested in Beckham, NFL Combine 2023: Colossal Richardson breaks QB records, NFL combine measurements: Full list of WR, TE numbers, Jackson Mahomes accused of assault at Kansas restaurant, Agent's Take: Rodgers' trade value, logistics, best fit, Teams that never won SB that have best chance in 2021, Mock Draft: Panthers, Colts trade up for QBs, Rodgers' trade value, logistics, best fit, Richardson breaks QB record in vertical jump, Pascal robbed at gunpoint, assaulted; WR 'doing fine', Bryce Young measures similar to former No. New York Giants +7500 (bet $10 to win $760 total), The market doesnt like the Giants, but they were 9-5 ATS as an underdog last year. Buffalo is on the doorstep of reaching the league championship game, thanks to the emergence of Josh Allen as one of the game's best quarterbacks. Reggie White was downright unblockable. The Kansas City Chiefs, winners of Super Bowl 57, are the favorites at +600. The poor AFC South is the only reason theyre not lower. The game did not feature nearly as dramatic an ending as the rest of the top-10, but it was a game full of Hall of Famers all playing at a high level. An 11-win team with only 20.3 points per game. In a 122 season, this team only surrendered more than 20 points once during the regular season. Brown (+1800) Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles (+2200) DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles (+3000) Haason Reddick, LB, Eagles (+3000) Chris Jones, DT, Chiefs (+4000) Article. 55) Super Bowl XLVIII (2013) The 2013 Seahawks were able to take advantage of this game to solidify themselves as an all-time NFL defense. Sam Darnold cannot go from worst QB in the NFL (by some metrics) to winning the Super Bowl in twelve months. FPI is able to reconcile that issue to determine a more accurate SOS. The Lions are the next-most likely team to earn the No. Discover unique things to do, places to eat, and sights to see in the best destinations around the world with Bring Me! FPI is working under the assumption that Deshaun Watson will not play for the Texans this season. A really strong offense, but their defense hurt their overall grade since there were less teams in the league. In the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh managed just 16 points and won a defensive slugfest 16-6. Their strategy to run it back with nearly the same squad looks (on paper) like it could pay off; the Bucs have an 85% chance to reach the playoffs and a 15% shot to repeat as champions, according to FPI. The Jaguars and Jets are back-to-back in FPI's rankings -- at Nos. Buffalo actually led going into halftime before being outscored 21-0 in the second half. Atlanta Falcons +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total), New coach, new offensive coordinator just too much newness for me., That being said, going 2-8 in one-score games last year was a killer, and if the ball bounces differently in 2021, maybe theyre hovering around .500. CB | Safety | OT | Interior OL That they have to play each other twice and are vying for the same divisional crown are limiting factors when it comes to win total and a chance to earn the coveted top seed in the AFC. The Colts have the third worst odds at +15000, while the Texans have the worst overall odds at +30000. Houston Texans +20000 (bet $10 to win $2010 total), Lowest win total on the board, uncertainty at QB, and a defense that cant stop a nose bleed.. As Rodgers' future hung in the balance over the summer, so too did the Packers' projections. Bettis got his ring before retirement andthe Steelersgreatly overachieved in the process. Los Angeles Rams +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total). One playoff win and taking the Kansas City Chiefs to the brink last season opened opportunities for the Browns, who possess one of the most talented rosters in the conference. Houston would be much higher on this list if Deshaun Watson's future with the team wasn't uncertain. Kansas City will be this team's measuring stick, as the Chiefs are the only roster more talented than Buffalo's in the AFC. Cincinnatis late onside kick attempt failed and deprived us of what could have been a classic ending. Let's start in the 1980s, with a team led by Hall of Famers like Joe Montana, Jerry Rice and Steve Young For a franchise that was so consistently dominant in the 1980s, the 1988 version of the San Francisco 49ers sure seems mediocre. Its the only Super Bowl where a member of the losing team won MVP. 14. This defense really let the team down in the biggest game, but they were phenomenal and a top defense throughout the season. Dilfer bounced around many teams in his career, but he was lucky enough to helm the Baltimore Ravens to a Super Bowl victory on the strength of their history-making defense. Why? ), or the second-half Seahawks (only topped 30 points once in the final seven games, and it was vs the hapless Jets)?, Seattle has lost three of its past four playoff games and not made the NFC title game since 2014., 11. But it wasn't always so certain that FPI would give Green Bay the love. They took down what was supposed to be the greatest team in NFL history and instead became one of the least likely Super Bowl champions in recent memory. Webworst defense to win super bowlaiken county sc register of deeds worst defense to win super bowl You can follow him on Twitter at @jasonrmcintyre. Jim Plunkett, a 33-year-old signal-caller at the time, was plucked off the bench early in the season and was the catalyst for the team making the playoffs, but even he only threw 18 touchdowns compared to 16 interceptions. This Super Bowl gave us a bunch of memorable performances. 1 seed in the AFC (32%) and reach the Super Bowl (30%). Peyton Manning was on another level this season, leading his offense to score a jarring 37.9 points per game, but the team around him was lacking. The Bears defensive dominance made a 36-point laugher worth watching. This team is starting to scratch the surface of its potential. This is my ranking of the best bets you can make on who will win Super Bowl 56 starting with the teams I absolutely would not recommend putting even a dollar on (with all odds via FOX Bet). Keep in mind, those numbers assume there is some chance Wentz plays in each of these games, particularly the later ones. Brown, setting the stage for Jones to have a huge first season in Tennessee. The teams combined for 11 turnovers. Herbert has immensely changed the fortunes of a franchise that mired in mediocrity during Philip Rivers' final years. This team just wasn't ready yet. The team that benefited from Norwood's egregious error, the New York Giants, was not particularly exceptional. Here they are ranked: It was a lot of fun to research these teams to remember just how good they were their respective seasons. BUT this 14-2 Atlanta Falcons team was no slouch. They were also had to win all their road playoff games, which during the time, was unheard of. And the NFC South doesn't have any other teams ranked in FPI's top 10. 6) Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The least memorable of the Giants four Super Bowl wins also happened to be their most dominant. Dallas Cowboys +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total), Realistically, Dallas is in the second tier of teams that could win the Super Bowl.. The game lacked memorable moments but is significant because it was Elways last. TEAM DATE ROUND TM OPP RESULT W TD 1DWN OFF OPP OFF 3DWN% 4DWN% Los Angeles Rams: 2/13/2022: Super Bowl: LAR @ CIN. Another dynasty toppled by Tom Brady, but the "Legion of Boom" should not be undersold. With a 19% chance to win the Super Bowl, the Chiefs are a bit above average for the league's favorite heading into the season. A great defense and front seven, but their running game hit on all cylinders with 2.305 total team rushing yards. There were 11 total turnovers in the game and the Cowboys took it one step further with a Super Bowl-record 10 penalties. The Cardinals added more playmakers to surround Murray this offseason with A.J. The "Greatest Show On Turf" was the potential dynasty derailed by New England Patriots. Sure the game was over by the end of the second quarter, but watching Steve Young (six touchdown passes) and Jerry Rice (three touchdown receptions) tear up the Chargers was a joy to watch. As a Jets fan, I could build a flimsy case for the Jets to make the playoffs; I cant even fathom them having a shot at the Super Bowl. On footballs biggest stage we want games featuring memorable teams, star players, plays that well never forget and compelling storylines. Indianapolis Colts +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total), Preseason surgery to Carson Wentz and Quentin Nelson could put the Colts down for the count before the calendar turns to October.. Brett Favre had 35 passing touchdowns and Dorsey Levens ran for 1,435 yards. Just how goofy was this game? This 97 Cardinals team scored 78. One team (Patriots) in the last 25 years has been to three straight.. Theyre basically the 2020 Patriots, who lost a Hall of Fame QB, had a ton of opt-outs defensively (the Saints lost five key contributors to free agency), and have no receivers (given the Michael Thomas surgery). Atlanta is going to miss Jones' big-play ability -- and has a defense set to give up big plays of its own. What Allen accomplished in 2020 was MVP-caliber, even if he didn't take home the league's highest individual honor. Jacksonville Jaguars +9000 (bet $10 to win $910 total), "Dont tell me what you think tell me whats in your portfolio. Twelve franchises have never captured a Super Bowl title. 2004-2023 CBS Interactive. Again, FPI doesn't think the division is much-improved. Plenty of fans were made because the 1998 Minnesota Vikings are the best team of all time to never make a Super Bowl. Therefore, designating Garoppolo as the starter seemed the safer choice. The Dolphins capped off the only perfect season ever, despite Garo Yepremian give us an all-time blooper. Buffalo Bill's in 1992 super bowl against Dalls Cowboys have up 52 points to there offense managed 17pts (How about them cowboys.) that's pretty ba The eventual champion Colts committed seven, count them, seven turnovers. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury has to commit to running the ball besides using Murray on designed carries, or else Arizona will experience the same second-half swoon as last year. The defense got a huge boost with the signing of Haason Reddick and top 10 pick Jaycee Horn, but Carolina still has to deal with Tampa Bay and New Orleans in the NFC South. This 11-5Oakland Raiders teamfinished second in the AFC West in an era when there were only three divisions. A 97 team that wasn't top 10 in anything really. The Ravens and Browns rank fourth and sixth in FPI rating -- basically true talent level -- but are fifth and seventh in chances to reach the playoffs and win the Super Bowl, respectively. Now, by most accounts, the Steelers were great in 1974. Miamis three points is still the fewest points scored in a Super Bowl. You have a few precious hours left to scout rosters, analyze schedules, weigh injuries and place your futures bets on who is going to win Super Bowl 56. If the Kansas City Chiefs didn't have a generational quarterback in Patrick Mahomes and a Hall of Fame head coach in Andy Reid, the Bills would have reached their first Super Bowl in 27 years. Green, but for a young team with a young coach, locker room leadership was needed last year down the stretch when they lost five of seven and missed the playoffs.. This game will be remembered for two plays: The surprise onside kick to start the second half and Tracy Porters game-sealing pick-6 of Manning. The Vikings uncharacteristically had a poor defense in 2020, ranking 29th in points allowed after finishing as a top 10 unit the previous five seasons. An 11-win season leaning on the talent of John Elway and the defense's ability to hold teams to under three touchdowns. How much this defense will improve under first-year head coach Brandon Staley will be an indicator whether the Chargers are playoff-caliber. The best chance they had and they were wide right. This game mightve been higher on the list if the Jets hadnt pulled off the AFL-NFL upset the prior season. FPI believes there is an 8% chance that the Chiefs face the Bucs again, more than any other potential matchup. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. The game itself may not be memorable but Marcus Allens 191-yard performance, which included the greatest run in Super Bowl history, pushes it into the top-30. The Doomsday Defense vs. the Orange Crush ended up being a forgettable, one-sided affair. Cleveland already has one of the game's best pass rushers in Myles Garrett and cornerbacks in Denzel Ward. Some may argue this should be higher than third, but, before Scott Norwoods infamous miss, the Giants and Bills did not give us a very exciting game. and quarterback rating (112.4). This may not be the worst championship team of all time, but these The New York team that was crowned champion was far from elite. So much needs to go right for the Broncos to get into the playoffs, much less the Super Bowl. Sign up for the For The Win newsletter to get our top stories in your inbox every morning. There was a reason the Colts were heavily favored going into the big game: The Jets were not all that good. Quick, use one word to describe Super Bowl XL in Detroit. It featured the great comeback, the only overtime in Super Bowl history, not one but two spectacular catches and a fascinating chess match between the Falcons and Patriots coaching staffs. The Chiefs win A 133 record, and a top 5 offense and defense, this was the derailing of a potential dynasty. As of now, FPI is working under the assumption that two rookies -- the Jaguars' Lawrence and the Jets' Wilson -- are their respective teams' current starters. Teams that barely squeak into the playoffs with a wild-card berth have become frequent commodities on this list, so it only feels appropriate to include the first wild-card team to ever win the Super Bowl. It was the biggest upset in football history for a reason. And Chicago finds itself with eight games against FPI's top 10 teams: at Rams, at Browns, at Bucs, vs. 49ers, vs. Ravens, at Seahawks and then a home-and-home with the Packers. Green Bay looked as if it would blow the Steelers out but Ben Roethlisberger led a rally that cut the lead from 18 to three before Mason Crosby put the game away with a field goal. They went 7-3 in one-score games last year and led the NFL in turnover margin (+11). Just when the Falcons appeared to have a team set to contend for a playoff berth in 2021, Atlanta traded Julio Jonesto the Titans for draft picks. And in these two cases, both quarterbacks will have below-average pass protection in front of them, and both will be trying to compensate for their teams' defenses, which both rank in FPI's bottom six. FPI has created preseason projections every year since 2015, and the 2021 Chiefs rank third out of the seven favorites, behind the 2017 Patriots (32%) and 2020 Chiefs (22%). This might be controversial among Bills fans, but this team was just as good as the year before. The AFC is considerably tougher than the NFC. Malcolm Butlers game-winning interception remains the best ending in Super Bowl history. Kansas City would be favored by 1.3 points over Tampa Bay on a neutral field if the teams were to suit up for a rematch tomorrow, FPI believes. ", From the huge offseason losses on the offensive line, to questions about the secondary, to the difficult division there isnt an ounce of value in the Raiders to win a ring., 26. Who do you think was the best team to not win a Super Bowl. With the best defense in the game, this 124 Steelers team could not stop a hot road team in the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers. After power was restored, the 49ers turned what looked to be another big game blowout into a nail-biter that Baltimore won thanks to a goal line stand and some questionable San Francisco play-calling.